US, 0 to 14.48 minutes
UK, 14.48 minutes
India, 22.25 minutes
Africa, 30.25 minutes
United States
Cases, 4, 917, 050
Deaths, 160, 702
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Washington University)
Deaths, 295, 011 by December 1
Meaning 134, 309 deaths to come
Assuming some lockdowns as death rates rise
Starting today, if 95% of the people in the US were to wear masks when leaving home
228,271 deaths by December 1
Saving 66, 740 lives
Dr. Christopher Murray
People’s inconsistent use of those measures is a serious problem
We’re seeing a rollercoaster in the United States
Fewer transmissions of the virus in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas
But deaths will continue to rise for the next week or two
Reasons for recent drop in infections
Local mandates for mask use
Bar and restaurant closures
More responsible behaviour by the public
The public’s behaviour had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths
Areas with increases in transmission
Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Virginia
These states may experience increasing cases for several weeks and then may see a response toward more responsible behaviour
Mask wearing
Mandates with no penalties, 8%
Mandates with penalties, 15%
Overall 5% increase since mid-July
Lockdowns when the daily death rate reaches 8 per million
August – Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina
September – Georgia and Texas
October – Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oregon.
November – Alabama, Arkansas, California, Iowa, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah,
Washington, and Wisconsin.
If mask use is increased to 95%, the re-impositions could be delayed 6 to 8 weeks on average
UK
Preston
Household meeting ban
Ban on households gathering in each other’s homes and gardens
Limiting gatherings also in parts of England’s north west, West Yorkshire and Leicester
ONS, England and Wales
27 July to 2 August 2020
28, 300 people within the community infected
One in 1,900 individuals
0.68 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000
3, 700 new cases per day
Wales
1, 400 people had COVID-19
One in 2, 200 people
Reproduction rate
R up to 0.8 -1.0
Last week 0.8 – 0.9
England, R = 0.8 – 1.0
Scotland, R = 0.6 – 1.0
N. Ireland, R = 0.8 -1.8
Aberdeen cluster
+ 22 = 101 cases
Nicola Sturgeon, “furious” at 8 footballers who broke lockdown rules
“Unacceptable” that eight Aberdeen players had visited a bar
They blatantly broke the rules
Now self-isolating after 2 tested positive
30 venues now linked to the cluster
India
Cases, + 62,538 = 2, 027, 074
+ 1 m cases in past 3 weeks
Deaths, 41, 585
US, Brazil, India
Third of 2m cases currently active
Delhi, 25% have been infected
5 million cases
IFR appears low
First case, Kerala, 30 January
173 days to reach a million on 16 July
21 days to reach two million
Lot of current rural spread with poor health care, e. g. Bihar
65% use private hospitals, clinics and doctors
Healthcare costs increasing
1% of the GDP on public healthcare
Indian government spends $63 per person on healthcare
China spent $398 (WHO, 2016)
176 million people still live on less than $2 a day.
Ignored and struggling infrastructure could collapse
Daily wage earners and contract workers form almost 80% of the workforce.
Africa
Cases top 1,000,000
Low levels of testing
More rapid spread through the continent
Limited health care provision
Limited oxygen
South Africa
Population, 58 m
Cases, 538, 184
Deaths, 9, 604
Hospitals overwhelmed in areas
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