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SOURCES
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Tesla Stock SURGES 6.22% In A Day…
1:07 Incredible AI Breakthrough: Sora (relevant to Tesla FSD & Autonomy)
7:41 Big Sentiment Shift Around Tesla Stock… And Are RATES Coming Down Soon?
13:01 Analyst With TERRIBLE Track Record On Tesla… Says They Will REMAIN Market Leader In 2024 on EV Sales
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In this video, INCREDIBLE AI breakthrough with Sona video generation (implications for Tesla), sentiment shifts bullish toward Tesla in the media as the stock SURGES over 6% in a day,
Tags: #Tesla #Sora #TeslaStock #TSLA #ElonMusk #Cybertruck #TeslaBot #Optimus
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As always, in this video I’m just sharing my thinking process and my reasoning. Keep using your own brain. Don’t be a sheep. 🐑
I love you all,
Steven
p.s. Share your thoughts below. I love to read the comments!
➡ SEND BITCOIN: bc1q386gs0uhzr5l5zatwz5u28t3f729zpsa9p8t0k
➡ SEND ETHEREUM: 0xb3F81537394344DF1d21a0e0CB6DFdF7bFBBA0A3
As I record this Tesla’s stock up more than 6% for the day closing just over $200 per share why we’ll get to that in a moment by the way if anyone actually tells you the reason a stock ever went up or down for the day they’re lying to
You just wanted to point something out over the last one year Tesla stocks 52 we High let’s just call it $300 and 52 we low call it 150 bucks this is some wild volatility rarely seen among large or Mega cap stocks Tesla’s market cap as I record this just over $600 billion now
The actual answer to why Tesla stock was up over 6% in terms of the mechanics in very simple terms is there was more buying activity than selling more buyers than sellers next minute the stonks higher and anyone who tries to have a more detailed reason than that is just speculating strangely or interestingly
Or coincidentally after endless attacks on Tesla fud corrupt judge in Delaware not really a judge just an activist in judges clothing lots of negativity suddenly it’s almost as if the tide is turning terms of sentiment of course I’m not making any predictions I’m just pointing out as we’ll see in some of the
Videos I covered today and we’ll get to those in just a moment but first I wanted to revisit a post by some guy with three first names on X from December 2023 not that long ago looking forward to a time when I can prompt an
AI to create new episodes of a series I loved by telling it my favorite episodes or new films based on Films I loved should be possible sooner or rather than later stick with me folks going to take a few minutes to tell this tale but there’s a reason I’m bringing this up
And why I posted this today quoting that original post from December this age like a fine wine the thing about AI progress we keep having these hockey stick moments out of seemingly nowhere capabilities go from potato to incredible but Sora which we’ll get to in a moment is definitely the last time
This will ever happen and autonomous vehicles are 100 years away so in case you don’t know what exactly is Sora here’s a super cut the latest in generative AI from open AI not yet publicly available but they’ve started demoing these are some videos that have been generated not filmed not shot not
Animated generated through text prompts we’re going to watch this full thing with no commentary 3 minutes it’s well worth watching to understand because a couple of weeks ago couple of days ago a couple of hours ago many people might have assumed that this kind of breakthrough was years if not decades
Away and here we are we’ve seen another hockey stick moment per my early commentary on autonomy of course this would never happen to vehicles that can drive themselves this only applies to image generation then language and now video but anyway let’s Watch [Applause] [Applause] Is In So obviously extremely unimpressive terrible demonstration that doesn’t suggest that yet another AO breakthrough is inevitable in another domain and it’s only a matter of time now I could keep running through these video demos for hours and hours and hours I’m not going to but the point ladies and gentlemen out of absolutely
Nowhere we’ve gone from in fact let me show you what we’ve gone from last year to something truly incredible now look it’s not perfect we did even see a mistake in the super cut earlier very uncanny and interesting one but holy the rate of progress here out of almost nowhere seemingly nowhere
Incredible we’ve seen breakthroughs in image generation language and now video Generation photorealistic video generation I mean I just can’t stop watching this this is AI generated there’s no video here completely generated from a text based prompt I mean is your mind blown or is it just me
This is absolutely unreal in fact it’s almost actually real which is a scary thing less than a year ago on screen now the biggest cuck on earth a pathetic beta male who won’t stand up for himself shame on you will this was cutting edge video generation from a text based
Prompt extremely strange uncanny hilarious disturbing all at the same time and look it was interesting but appeared to have a very long way to go less than a year later out of seemingly nowhere this is where we’re at and it’s not just one domain that this video generation is capable of stunning
Results it’s not just aerial photography of Landscapes it also Nails humans in environments animals in addition Fantastical stuff got an astronaut here with a knitted helmet so bizarre and even mimicking Wildlife I wonder what David aten would have to say about this but remember there definitely won’t be comparable breakthroughs in other
Domains featuring AI certainly not autonomous vehicles and in unrelated matters just for the record I am still buying Tesla stock with every spare scent don’t know why I mentioned that and now suddenly the sentiment shift around Tesla don’t worry though I’m sure the benj will swing back rather soon but
Check this out headline time to own more Tesla this on cnbs so if people had been selling Tesla to buy Nvidia you think the best thing to do is to invert that cuz you’ve probably made a lot of money on nvda well let’s be clear Sly I’m log
Nvidia and I’m loading up here on Tesla but I think you’re absolutely right when you look at bro that was music to my ears just said he’s loading up on Tesla makes two of us with literally every spare scent the video it’s three times the size of Tesla from a market
Perspective it’s now the third largest but the parabolic move in Nvidia if you look at a chart here just since January up 50% and this is not up 50% from where it was cutting half in 2022 this is substantial this was a nearly a trillion
Dollar company now to be up where it is I think you can go from 750 it has to back and fill so I think with earnings expectations think about it suly the earnings expectations for revenue for NVIDIA are over $20 billion that’s three times that’s 3x what it was just a year
Ago from Q4 so I think there’s high expectations I know they’re printing money right now but I think there’s a pullback short term you’re seeing RSI levels overbought but Tesla seems to be a different type of AI approach and I know it’s the mag 7 it’s not getting any
Love right now it’s about to trade 200 today so we are seeing some buyer step in but nonetheless S I think we have to understand there’s huge opportunity in Tesla here and I think you have to profit take in N Video yeah and I want
You know you don’t want all the in we call them tesan I guess we what do we call the nidian the in you don’t want the in I think I just made that up you you don’t want the nidian coming at you you still love the company but I I get
The mentality which is you know everybody’s like oh drop Tesla it’s not mag 7 it’s super six or spacular six whatever name they want to employ to it I get your take and being a smart Trader is trying to find the opportunity when when other people wait wait wait wait
Wait wait is there such a thing as a smart Trader actual serious question by the way I mean smart based on their results of course is there a single example of a quote Trader who sustainably printed money made big profits on their trades of an extended multi- deade career I’d really like to
Know it is a serious question please leave their names in the comments below people are selling that’s right right and I’m utilizing options to Define my risk I’m selling a risk reversal here in Tesla selling the 185 March regular expiration buying the 200 call but I
Think you have to realize is take a step back Sully not to get too wonky here but from an AI perspective I know we are really seeing Tesla viewed as more of a cyclical car company I know it has a tech influence but think of the spend
Nvidia got a lot of press for buying Sound Hound they made a $4 million with an M million dollar investment in that right now this year in 202 Tesla is going to spend $10 billion on their AI development so I think from the longer play I think you’re going to see Tesla
Back and fill up to $300 I have you have to really put the emotion aside on Elon Musk you never know what’s going to happen or what tweets going to come out but I think from a True Value from a true trade perspection this is a great pairis trade going in next Wednesday
Where I think you will see a reprieve or a relent in the price of the video Jeff kilberg got a macro view on the markets right now I we just talked about two of the most important stocks that are out there but do you have sort of a macro
View we ever going to see this broadening out that some people are talking about that you know all the 3,000 other public companies that exist will finally get a little love I think that it is coming and I know Ryan diet talked about this morning on Twitter
About this small cap explosion if you see a breakout small caps that’s the breath you’re looking for but bigger picture suly we can grapple about when or even talk about if how many points are going to be cut but we are going to see a rate cut this year in 2024 of 100
Basis points and that’s coming I don’t care if it comes in March May or June but that’s coming and that that’s why you saw those animal spirits that Kate referred to you’re seeing people trying to buy utilize that $8 trillion in cash they’re trying to get it to work because
They’ve been chasing and the Bears continue to be in The Hurt Locker that’s just a fact so I think there’s more room to run to the upside I think we’re going to test back and fill here to this 4950 level in the S&P 500 but we’re going to
Make new highs I think next month now of course no one actually has a crystal ball to know for sure what’s going to happen with rates this year but if we do see some rate Cuts Jeffy is suggesting 100 basis points EG 1% I don’t know what
It is with this financial wankery why what is with basis points doesn’t make you sound smarter I’m not having to go Jeff I just the whole I just don’t get it can I just say 1% but Steven what if it’s half a percent then then you say
Half a perent not 50 basis points but the point is if rates come down this will directly and I do mean directly affect consumers not only ability to buy vehicles on credit e they may not be able to afford repayments but if repayments come down significantly with
A 1% rate cut over time now they may be able to afford them but also consumer sentiment and willingness to finance the purchase of a vehicle people are worried right now rates are skyh high they’ve rocketed up an enormous amount in a short period of time but if rates start
Coming down it may affect a lot of consumer sentiment psychologically they may not be feeling the pinch so much and just mechanically somebody who previously couldn’t afford to finance a vehicle if rates come down 1% May then be able to and of course that would have absolutely no impact whatsoever on order
Flow the market clearing price Etc so I don’t even know why I mentioned that Tesla should just run some more ads that’ll solve everything but wait there’s more this time over on Yahoo finance Tesla will remain the market leader says an analyst on 2024 EV sales how quickly the tide can turn from
Relentless fud to some positivity I wonder how short Le it will be for more on what is happening in the EV space Jo us now is eai McKelly City us autos and Auto Parts analyst eai it is good to see you and I want to get wait a minute I know this guy
I was mispronouncing his name as shittai I think my mistake eai H what’s this on screen right now oh wow looks like he’s got a five star rating uh rank number 8,653 out of 8,720 Wall Street analysts but how come he’s got five stars I don’t oh they’re
Not filled in my bad hm success rate a little bit over a third average return down over 20% but hey look this is this is a onee time frame pretty unfair right I don’t want to pick on the guy I think we should judge people over a much
Longer time frame than a single year however let’s see what he’s got to say it’s got a buy on Ford Buy on aptiva a Buy on government Motors a Buy on mobile ey a hold on Tesla a hold on Evo a hold on charge Point let’s let’s zoom in on
Tesla let’s see here uh yeah well that’s award isn’t it Tesla in the teens per share less than 20 bucks a share he says sell at 17 sell 13 sell by the way this was 2019 yeah advising investors to sell Tesla stock when it was just over $13 a
Share split adjusted in May 2019 currently today over 200 continued sell sell sell sell sell all the way through the teens the 20s the 30s the 40s the 50s into the hundreds continuing sell sell sell sell sell sell sell and then suddenly after a slight pullback from
All-time highs it changes is tuned to a hold so the question I have is how is it possible to be this bad I don’t know the answer maybe it can fill us in so I just thought this was important context again it’s not worth judging somebody over a
Very short period of time but here we’ve got a good solid call it almost 5 years and right when I’m like you I need to start a YouTube channel and explain to these people what I’m seeing with Tes stock in the teens he’s saying sell ouch good thing he’s not
Compensated based on performance otherwise he’d be rather malnourished now it’s possible he’s changed his tune here it’s also possible that he’s bullish on the company’s performance but think they’re just a car company and values them at like 3 cents per shair possible let’s see what he’s got to say
With that important context out of the way to a note eai you recently wrote here you’re now trimming your estimates for Ev sales both for this year and next eai eai what what do you why did you make that call there what what are you seeing in the market well well thank for
You for having me yeah we did trim our estimates recently uh by a modest amount we still see ev sales actually reaching about 9 and a half% penetration in 2024 it close to 15% % by 2025 that said given the Slowdown and some of the revised Plans by the automakers that
We’ve seen announced plus I would say a tough start to January Al December we think was actually a very good month uh but just given that the slower start in January we did trim our numbers a little bit I would say our views are probably still above the current consensus
Thinking which has been very bearish on EVS the last few months we don’t completely agree with that there are some adoption challenges out there that’s reflected into our numbers but we still think we’ll have a pretty good year for Ev growth this year on the back
Of some new product and who do you think is going to be the big winner in EVs and is that going to then determine who’s the big winner overall in sales this year yes I mean overall you know e are still a small part of the market but but
You know at you know close to 10% we think this year uh we do believe of course Tesla will remain by far the market leader our our forecast for market share this year is just under uh 50% you know we think a new product uh including the Refresh on the model 3 is
Going to be key for them this year of course cybertruck r in as well so I wonder if 2019 IAI who was recommending invest cell Tesla stock in the teens would have anticipated that in 2024 he would expect Tesla to sell roughly half in fact slightly more than half of all
Electric vehicles in the United States and for their Mel y to have been the world’s bestselling vehicle in 2023 and no doubt the world’s best selling vehicle in 2024 by an even larger margin and then General Motors as they ramp their altm platform we think um you know
Could be an 11% market share sort of the first non- Tesla automaker with with a double digit market share uh this year as they ramp that that platform uh you know we think we need more product uh in the EV Market if you look at just some
Of the market coverage uh to date it’s pretty uneven in certain segments and certainly in certain uh price points and you know one thing to keep in mind in the whole EV debate that’s very important is in the US we have on average about two vehicles per household
The burden of EV adoption isn’t the about changing one’s entire lifestyle to go all in on EV initially it’s really about converting households largely to one combustion or ice and and maybe a second one with with EV um and if that starts to happen you could see in theory
A pretty rapid uptake of EV adoption over the next few years but you need additional product of course you do need better uh EV charging infrastructure lower pricing which Iration should help to some extent can we be real here there’s no issues with a charging infrastructure pel super charging
Network is ubiquitous scaling rapidly in line with new EVS on the roads and just about every automaker I mean just about every automaker in the US with any brain cells at all actually even the ones without any brain cells have announced they’ll be adopting Teslas charging ports on their vehicles either this year
Or next and simultaneously gaining access to a huge portion of Tesla supercharging Network which continues to grow so it is true there are some charging networks that suck but there’s also Tesla’s charging Network that doesn’t suck and is ubiquitous so no issues there there may be perceptions about where to
Charge how to charge Etc but this is a nonissue this year uh as well so we think structurally the market is in probably in better shape than what consensus currently uh baks in and it you mentioned pricing is that in your opinion is that the biggest challenge
For adoption right now I ask because if you were you know if you’re in the market you’re looking for an EV let’s say around $35,000 you TI there aren’t that many options do do you see that changing though it certainly is part of it and in survey work that we’ve done it
Does come up as one of the top like three reasons and pain points of EV adoption today uh but EV charging infrastructure range anxiety uh even product availability also comes up in some of the the survey work that we’ve uh we’ve seen and what’s interesting is
Some of the lowest priced EVS in the last couple of years have not been the most successful from a volume perspective and one of the um you know really impressive things that Tesla’s accomplished amongst many in the last few years is you know when you look at
Some of the third party data around Conquest who are they actually taking share from uh there’s a fair amount more than I think people com might commonly believe of that Conquest coming from Mass Market Brands as you actually accurate as I’ve been calling it for years the Tesla stretch people who
Previously were buying budget lowend economical Vehicles look at A tes and go well that’s 50% more 100% more 200% more than I’ve ever spent on a new vehicle in my life but holy dude I want one the features the functionality the technology the safety the performance
It’s so good I’m going to spend way more than I’ve ever spent previously on a vehicle Tesla currently eating the lunch of companies like Toyota and Volkswagen just goes to show what a compelling product Tesla has in both the three and the why the consumers are willing to pay
Meaningfully more than they’ve ever spent previously on a vehicle just cuz they’re so good this has surprised a lot of people Tesla’s strategy is actually quite simple make the best possible product they can at the lowest possible price and eat everyone’s lunch which is exactly what’s happening see and that’s what the appeal
Of of EVS right successful EVS have done some pretty incredible things in ter terms of Market expansion and conquesting from segments uh that are even lower price uh but broadly to your point yes price has to come down over over time to to increase adoption that
We think you know nine and a half percent this year can still be done with some modest degree of a price premium relative to the overall Market um it I guess I would ask my earlier question a little bit differently in terms of the number of vehicle versus the number of
Vehicles if I am an investor and I am betting on the long-term viability and growth and ually maybe dominance of EVS is Tesla the way to go or do I actually want to bet on one of the more traditional automakers who maybe have more room to expand there I just I just
Laugh at the question I don’t know if it’s a serious question or it’s just a talking point given the fact that we’ve just dug through this guy’s stock recommendation history and coverage and the fact that he’s got hold ratings and or buy ratings on some Legacy auto
Companies I don’t think he’s quite done the math well maybe he’ll be right this time and I’ll be really embarrassed in a few years just like is really embarrassed looking back at his cell rating on Tesla stock in 2019 in the teens Tom will tell everything is
Individual kind of risk reward you know right now with Tesla we are on the sidelines with a with a 224 Target uh you looking for more convincing entry points uh there just just on valuation I think you want to look for opportunities where EVS can be um you know very
Additive and equative to market share and of course longer term profitability by much more than what consensus uh bakes in you know in GM’s case for example right and even Forge where we have substantial losses we believe running through the p&l today uh you know if you can protect key parts of the
Combusting business for example pickup trucks uh which we think we’ll see slower EV uptake then the EV uptake more broadly could end up being actually active to the overall earnings over the next couple of years if these companies can execute and those could be really interesting uh risk extremely big if
Reward opportunities because you can see some some real uh you know healthy degree of potential upward earnings revisions as those things play out so we look for a combination of defensive qualities uh in companies and of course offensive qualities with EV where you can have a real path of earnings upside
And a cre of course Tesla is still by far the market leader again we think about 50% market share this year and will still be uh by far the leading share in 2025 by our estimates as well about 40% share roughly um you but right now we are neutral on on on valuation
And kind of latest risk reward assessment yeah for sure it’s going to be an interesting year next couple years to see how all of that shakes out you T So guys I I’m kind of a bit confused here I don’t know what’s going on but I
Kind of feel like there was a point to today’s video something to do with AI and hockey stick moments and breakthroughs coming out of nowhere and buying to the stock with every spare scent and but I can’t quite follow the breadcrumbs and put the pieces of the
Puzzle together so I know this is a weird place to wrap the video up but uh I think that’s everything just yeah bye want more content Early Access bunch of perks click the links in the pin comment ag1 has given me a massive meaningful boost in energy allowing me to do a lot
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