Ulta Beauty (ULTA) has drawn fresh attention after announcing nationwide launches for Olive & June and Rare Beauty, new Ulta Beauty World 2026 events, and store expansion, developments that sharpen the focus on its current valuation.
See our latest analysis for Ulta Beauty.
These launches and events coincide with strong recent momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 10.52% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 64.54%, suggesting enthusiasm that extends beyond short term headlines.
If Ulta’s recent moves have you thinking about where else growth could emerge in retail and services, it may be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership next.
With Ulta Beauty stock near all time highs, a value score of 1 and the share price sitting above the average analyst target of US$637.39, the key question is whether you see untapped upside here or a market already pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 10.2% Overvalued
With Ulta Beauty closing at US$664.85 against a narrative fair value of about US$603, the current price leans ahead of that framework and puts the spotlight on the assumptions underneath.
International expansion via Space NK acquisition (UK/Ireland), entry into Mexico, and planned debut in the Middle East allows Ulta to tap into new, underpenetrated geographies with strong beauty markets, creating additional long-term revenue streams and potential operating profit growth as the international business scales.
Curious what kind of revenue pace, profit margin shape, and future P/E multiple are baked into that story? The most followed narrative leans on steady growth, slightly higher profitability, and a richer earnings multiple than the sector. The exact mix of those inputs is what pushes fair value below today’s price.
Result: Fair Value of $603 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are pressure points too, including rising store and wage costs, and the potential earnings hit if the Target shop in shop partnership ends in 2026.
Find out about the key risks to this Ulta Beauty narrative.
Build Your Own Ulta Beauty Narrative
If this narrative does not quite match your view, or you would rather lean on your own research and assumptions, you can build a full Ulta story yourself in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Ulta Beauty.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Ulta has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. The real edge comes from comparing it with other ideas that match your style and risk comfort.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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