Wavytalk’s debut on Ulta.com gives Ulta Beauty (ULTA) a fresh set of professional styling tools and haircare to feature online, highlighting how product partnerships can shape the stock’s appeal for beauty focused investors.
See our latest analysis for Ulta Beauty.
These product additions come as Ulta Beauty’s share price sits at $690.37, with a 90 day share price return of 33.65% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 84.20%. Some investors may view this as recent momentum that they associate with consistent demand for beauty and haircare offerings across channels.
If this kind of momentum has you reviewing your watchlist, it could be a time to broaden your search and check out 22 top founder-led companies as potential next ideas.
With Ulta Beauty trading at $690.37 and sitting slightly above the average analyst price target, investors now face a key question: is the current valuation stretched by recent enthusiasm, or is the market still underestimating its potential?
Most Popular Narrative: 61.5% Overvalued
According to the most followed narrative, Ulta Beauty’s fair value sits at $427.41, well below the current $690.37 share price. This presents a notable valuation gap for investors to weigh.
Beauty products in particular make a lot of sense to be sold alongside salon services in a storefront so you can actually evaluate the high-end products in person. They have numerous private label brands and partnerships that attract customers, providing a small buffer to their expanding loyalty program. They are at their lowest ever P/E ratio right now at only 13, but with a high P/S and book ratio of 7, which is unusual. They have a strong Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and are free from debt.
Want to see what kind of long term revenue curve, profitability assumptions and future P/E multiple this narrative is incorporating for Ulta? The full narrative sets out a detailed earnings path, a margin profile and a valuation anchor that together drive that fair value estimate.
Result: Fair Value of $427.41 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this view could be challenged if store based growth slows faster than expected, or if online and legacy competitors pressure Ulta’s margins and market share.
Find out about the key risks to this Ulta Beauty narrative.
Build Your Own Ulta Beauty Narrative
If you are not fully aligned with this view or prefer to lean on your own homework, you can stress test the numbers, tweak the assumptions and build a fresh Ulta Beauty thesis in just a few minutes, then Do it your way.
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Ulta Beauty.
Looking for more investment ideas?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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