A Look At E.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Valuation As Super Bowl Campaign And Global Expansion Plans Build Visibility

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e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) is stepping onto one of the biggest advertising stages with a Super Bowl commercial built around its Glow Reviver Lip Oil, along with higher marketing spend, an international push, and new collaborations.

See our latest analysis for e.l.f. Beauty.

Those marketing efforts are landing at a time when e.l.f. Beauty’s share price has been volatile. A 1-day share price return of 6.8% lifted the stock to $82.09, while a 30-day share price return of 5.67% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 15.41% suggest momentum has cooled compared to its very large 5-year total shareholder return of around 3.5x.

If this Super Bowl campaign has you thinking about what else might be gaining attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out 22 top founder-led companies for more potential ideas.

With shares up about 15% over the past year and trading below the average analyst price target, plus strong recent revenue and earnings figures, you have to ask: Is e.l.f. Beauty still mispriced, or is the market already baking in future growth?

According to the most followed narrative on e.l.f. Beauty, the fair value of $251.03 sits well above the last close at $82.09. This frames the current Super Bowl spotlight in a very different light.

Catalysts: e.l.f. Beauty has experienced tremendous growth in recent years, and several key catalysts have contributed to this success. Here are some of the most significant factors driving the company’s expansion:

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how that kind of brand power feeds into the $251.03 fair value? The narrative focuses on expansion, pricing power, and profitability staying on a tight track. Curious which assumptions really move the dial in that model?

Result: Fair Value of $251.03 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, that story can break if sales growth keeps slowing, or if rising costs and debt servicing start to squeeze margins and limit future investment firepower.

Find out about the key risks to this e.l.f. Beauty narrative.

The popular narrative pins e.l.f. Beauty’s fair value at $251.03, well above the current $82.09 share price. Our DCF model tells a very different story, with an estimate of $55.68. This would make the stock look overvalued rather than undervalued. So which story feels closer to reality for you?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

ELF Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out e.l.f. Beauty for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 52 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you are not fully on board with either view, or prefer to put fresh assumptions to the test yourself, you can build and publish a custom e.l.f. Beauty thesis in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your e.l.f. Beauty research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

If e.l.f. Beauty has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Put that energy to work and let a few focused stock lists spark fresh ideas.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ELF.

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