ABUJA, February 12, 2026- Current deficits in health, education, and skill development at work are costing low- and middle-income countries 51% of their future labor earnings, according to a new World Bank Group report released today. In Nigeria, existing deficits are costing 111% of future earnings. Over the past 15 years, even as incomes have risen and poverty has declined, two-thirds of low- and middle-income countries have experienced declines in nutrition, learning, or workforce skills. For example, in Nigeria student test scores have remained stagnant. In 2025, these scores are one point below those of 2010. Reversing these deficits will require a new approach to human capital investments.
The report, Building Human Capital Where It Matters: Homes, Neighborhoods and Workplaces, finds that 86 out of the 129 low- and middle-income countries experienced declines in either nutrition, learning, or workforce skill development between 2010 and 2025. Rising incomes and reductions in poverty have failed to translate into stronger human capital outcomes. The report calls for broader investments in homes, neighborhoods, and workplaces – real-world settings that shape human capital.
“The prosperity of low- and middle-income countries depends on their ability to build and protect human capital. Right now, we see that many countries are struggling to improve nutrition, learning, and skills of their current and future workforce, which raises concerns about labor productivity and the types of jobs their economies can sustain in the future,” said Mamta Murthi, World Bank Group Vice President for People. “Broadening investments in human capital to include the home, the neighborhood, and the workplace can activate these settings that shape people’s lives and increase overall human capital accumulation.”
According to the report:
Homes: Skill gaps linked to family circumstances emerge before age five – before most children in low- and middle-income countries start school – and remain virtually constant throughout adolescence. Income alone does not offset poor care environments, which lower test scores and increase depression. The report found high rates of violent discipline at home, suggesting significant room for improvements in care at home.Neighborhoods: New evidence suggests that children who grow up in wealthier neighborhoods earn twice as much as those from poorer ones, even when their parents share the same income and education levels. Neighborhoods shape opportunities beyond access to schools and clinics. Exposure to pollution, crime, or poor infrastructure directly affects health, learning, and skills development.Workplaces: In low- and middle-income countries, self-employed workers earn only half as much for each additional year of experience as wage workers. Yet 70% of workers in these countries are in small-scale agriculture, low-quality self-employment, or micro firms – jobs that generally provide limited formal training and on-the-job learning. Labor force participation gaps further limit skill accumulation – around 50% of women are out of the labor force, and around 20% of youth are neither studying nor working.
Nigeria: Selected Findings
In Nigeria, when caregivers engage in interactive learning such as reading, storytelling, and play, a child’s development readiness more than doubles, jumping from about 20% to over 50%. Population health trends show adult height has declined between Nigerians born in 1966 and 1996, signaling worsening early-life nutrition and health conditions for later cohorts.Evidence from northern Nigeria shows that a combination of cash transfers, asset transfers, and health counseling among mothers resulted in a 10% increase in household expenditure and a 6-percentage point reduction in stunting even two years after the intervention had ended.While productivity in smallholder farming remains largely flat even with years of experience, large-scale interventions to improve apprenticeships in Nigeria have increased youths’ earnings and skills.In Nigeria, government subsidies that enabled small and medium enterprises to insource or outsource specialized functions, such as marketing and finance, led to substantial improvements in business practices, increases in product innovation, and, in the case of outsourcing, higher sales and profits.
A newly expanded global index, the Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+), launched alongside this report, provides new country- and regional-level data tracking human capital accumulation from birth to age 65 and a metric for how gaps translate into forgone future labor earnings. For the first time, it captures how human capital gains – or losses – in the labor market affects lifetime productivity. HCI+ looks at country outcomes in 3 key areas-Health, Education, and Employment. Each point in the index corresponds to a one percent difference in expected lifetime earnings potential, making it possible to translate gains in education, health, or job quality into income terms.
It will help each country answer questions such as:
Where are the largest human capital gaps-health, education, or employment in my country? How much would productivity and people’s future labor earnings rise if learning outcomes improved? How much do employment differences between men and women contribute to earnings gaps?
HCI+ results for Nigeria:
Nigeria’s HCI+ score in 2025 is 131 points, which is higher than the average for the Sub-Saharan Africa region (127).Nigeria’s score of 64 in the education pillar is lower than the median for lower middle-income countries (88). Its completion rate for tertiary education (11.3%) is higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa (10.5%) but lower than the average for lower middle-income countries (17.6%). There is a 6-point gap in the HCI+ score for females (128) compared to males (134). If this gap were to be closed, Nigeria’s overall HCI+ score would increase from 131 to 134 and Nigeria’s future earnings would be higher by 3%.The HCI+ data for Nigeria also reveals that increasing effective years of schooling to 12 years, could raise labor earnings by about 20% over the long term, representing one of the most significant long-term opportunities in the region.
“The evidence suggests that policies that consider the drivers of human capital in each setting can improve nutrition, learning, and skill development at work. By enabling more people to build skills throughout life, countries can spark a ‘virtuous cycle’ – where rising productivity leads to higher wages and greater incentives for families and communities to invest in the next generation,” said Norbert Schady, World Bank Group Chief Economist for People.
The report recommends:
Parenting and preschool programs that promote early learning and improve children’s care environments.Targeting struggling neighborhoods, with a focus on increasing nutrition, learning, and on-the-job skill development through collaboration among all government departments, not just those focused on education and health.Reforming labor markets to expand apprenticeships, childcare, and on-the-job learning.Promoting policies that integrate public services within homes, neighborhoods, and workplaces, and an ambitious data agenda to track progress.
worldbank.org/humancapitalreport
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