In 2024, Donald Trump won the presidential race after his initial opponent, then-incumbent President Joe Biden, withdrew from the race due to concerns about his age and mental acuity.
More than a year into the start of his second term, polls show that Americans are not only dissatisfied with his performance but increasingly concerned about his mental capacity.
That concern hasn’t reached the level seen during Biden’s presidency, when he was 81 at the time of withdrawal, but it is rising for the 79-year-old Trump.
In fact, several recent polls indicate that a majority of Americans are asking this question. Even many Republicans express concern.
Perhaps the most notable poll was released on Tuesday ahead of the State of the Union address in Trump’s second term, which broke his own record for the longest address to Congress.
Rising concerns and specific poll findings
“61% of Americans agree with the statement that Trump has become unstable because of age.”
The poll also showed a decline in the share of Americans who believe Trump is “mentally sharp and able to perform under pressure” – from 54% in September 2023 to 45% today.
“mentally sharp and able to cope with challenges”
Although Trump often boasts about his cognitive test results and testified for over an hour at hearings, he still does not match Biden at his peak; as of July 2024, about a quarter of Americans considered Biden mentally sharp and able to meet challenges.
Other polls corroborate these findings, notably a CNN poll released last month.
“stamina and sharpness to effectively serve as president”
That share has fallen from 53% at the end of 2023 to 46% today. Compared with Biden in 2023, when his support fluctuated between 25% and 32%, Trump’s 46% remains above that level.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted last week showed that a majority favored Trump lacking sufficient mental sharpness (56%) or physical health (51%), to effectively lead the country. The figures rose compared with the previous period by 13 and 23 points, respectively.
Compared with Biden, these figures are not the worst: in February 2022 Biden had about 54% on questions of mental sharpness. However the rise of doubts about Trump shows that trust in his cognitive abilities is an important political factor.
Finally, a Pew Research Center poll conducted last month showed a decrease in the percentage of Americans who feel “very confident” in Trump’s mental readiness to perform the duties – from 39% a year ago to 32% today. The percentage who regard his physical fitness as “at least very confident” fell from 35% to 28%.
“very confident” in mental fitness
“very confident” in physical fitness
According to Reuters and Pew, the share of people in Trump’s base who say they are “very confident” in their mental health has declined from 75% to 66%, and in physical fitness from 65% to 55%. This means roughly a third or more of his base express doubts.
While Biden had worse overall numbers, the widening trust gap underscores that over time doubts about mental sharpness can influence perceptions of leadership even among Trump supporters. According to various studies, the trend remains the subject of active political discourse and analysis.
Ultimately, the older leader faces new challenges due to growing doubts about his ability to govern the country on both the international and domestic fronts.
