Ulta Beauty Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: Forecast, Analyst Outlook & Stock Impact - News and Statistics

Mar 11, 2026

Ulta Beauty Earnings Report Preview

Ulta Beauty is scheduled to announce its earnings results after the market closes this Thursday.

In the previous quarter, the company exceeded analyst revenue expectations, reporting revenues of $2.86 billion, up 12.9% year on year. It was an exceptional quarter, with an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

This quarter, the market is expecting Ulta’s revenue to grow 9.7% year on year, a reversal from the 1.9% decrease it recorded in the same quarter last year.

Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings. Ulta rarely misses Wall Street’s revenue estimates.

Looking at Ulta’s peers in the beauty and cosmetics retailer segment, some have already reported their Q4 results. Bath and Body Works‘s revenues decreased 2.3% year on year, beating analysts’ expectations by 4.3%, and Sally Beauty reported flat revenue, in line with consensus estimates. Bath and Body Works’s stock price was unchanged after the results while Sally Beauty was down 3.5%.

Debates around the economy’s health and the impact of potential tariffs and corporate tax cuts have caused much uncertainty in 2025. While some of the beauty and cosmetics retailer stocks have shown solid performance in this choppy environment, the group has generally underperformed, with share prices down 9.3% on average over the last month. Ulta is down 6.9% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $698.79 (compared to the current share price of $648.20).

This report provides a comprehensive view of the global cosmetics industry, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the worldwide value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.

Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between exporters and importers worldwide. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the global cosmetics landscape.

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Key findings

Global demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking cost-competitive producers to import-reliant markets.
Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating distinct cost curves across regions.
Market concentration varies by country, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned globally.
Report scope

The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts across countries and regions.

Market size and growth in value and volume terms
Consumption structure by end-use segments and regions
Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
Global trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
Competitive context and market entry conditions
Product coverageProdcom 20421250 – Lip make-up preparationsProdcom 20421270 – Eye make-up preparationsProdcom 20421300 – Manicure or pedicure preparationsProdcom 20421400 – Powders, whether or not compressed, for cosmetic use (including talcum powder)Prodcom 20421500 – Beauty, make-up and skin care preparations including suntan (excluding medicaments, lip and eye make-up, manicure and pedicure preparations, powders for cosmetic use and talcum powder)Country coverageCountry profiles and benchmarks

For the global report, country profiles provide a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators. The profiles highlight the largest consuming and producing markets and allow direct benchmarking across peers.

Methodology

The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.

International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
National production and consumption statistics
Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
Price series and unit value benchmarks
Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation

All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.

Forecasts to 2035

The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links cosmetics demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts.

Historical baseline: 2012-2025
Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
Capacity and investment outlook for major producing countries

Each country projection is built from its own historical pattern and the regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.

Price analysis and trade dynamics

Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.

Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
Export and import unit value trends
Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions
Profiles of market participants

Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.

Business focus and production capabilities
Geographic reach and distribution networks
Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
Compliance, certification, and sustainability context
How to use this report

Quantify global demand and identify the most attractive markets
Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target countries
Track price dynamics and protect margins
Benchmark performance against major competitors
Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of global cosmetics dynamics.

FAQ
What is included in the global cosmetics market?

The market size aggregates consumption and trade data at country and regional levels, presented in both value and volume terms.

How are the forecasts to 2035 built?

The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.

Does the report cover prices and margins?

Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.

Which countries are profiled in detail?

The report provides profiles for the largest consuming and producing countries, enabling benchmarking across peers.

Can this report support market entry decisions?

Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.

1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

REPORT DESCRIPTION
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

KEY FINDINGS
MARKET TRENDS
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
CONSUMPTION BY TYPE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT

5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
UNSATURATED MARKETS
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
PRODUCTION BY TYPE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

8. IMPORTS

The Largest Import Supplying Countries

IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORTS BY TYPE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORT PRICES BY TYPE AND COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

9. EXPORTS

The Largest Destinations for Exports

EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORTS BY TYPE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORT PRICES BY TYPE AND COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

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