#beatingcovid19: Daily Dose – K [20/08/2020]

#beatingcovid19: Daily Dose – K

1. Dispersion parameter, K – Number
Different pathogens will have different ways in which they spread and statisticians use K, the so-called dispersion parameter, to describe how variable the infection can be.
Simply put, a low K value suggests that a small number of infected people are responsible for large amounts of disease transmission. For the 1918 influenza, the number K is thought to be around 1, and perhaps 40% of infected people might not pass on the virus to anybody else. But for diseases like Sars, Mers and COVID-19 with K as low as 0.1, this proportion rises to 70%.
There are two reasons why scientists are looking into the role of variability in controlling coronavirus transmission. First, super-spreading events are critical in the late stages of the epidemic when the virus is almost eradicated. Small values of K mean that one infected person can trigger many new cases in a very short time. If this happens, the epidemic can quickly rebound, even if locally eradicated.
Outbreaks in Seoul nightclubs in South Korea, meatpacking plants in the US, and coal mines in Poland show how damaging super-spreading events can be. So governments need to be diligent in identifying the risks associated with the reopening of industries and entertainment. A way to identify and track potential super-spreaders is fundamental to prevent future outbreaks.
But there is also a glimmer of hope. If indeed K is as low as 0.1, 70% of infected individuals fail to pass on the virus. As a result, most cases arriving from outside the country or region might recover without starting a new outbreak. It might, therefore, be easier to eradicate the disease and to maintain the disease-free status than suggested by the average reproductive number, R.
While R is not going to be replaced by K in the daily press briefing, both are needed to understand how COVID-19 spreads.

Helpful reading:

2. Vitamin K:
Vitamin K plays a key role in helping the blood clot, preventing excessive bleeding. Unlike many other vitamins, vitamin K is not typically used as a dietary supplement.
Vitamin K is actually a group of compounds. The most important of these compounds appears to be vitamin K1 and vitamin K2. Vitamin K1 is obtained from leafy greens and some other vegetables. Vitamin K2 is a group of compounds largely obtained from meats, cheeses, and eggs, and synthesized by bacteria.
Vitamin K1 is the main form of vitamin K supplement available in the U.S.
Recently, some people have looked to vitamin K2 to treat osteoporosis and steroid-induced bone loss, but the research is conflicting. At this point there is not enough data to recommend using vitamin K2 for osteoporosis.
Researchers studied patients who were admitted to the Canisius Wilhelmina Hospital in the Dutch city of Nijmegan. It was found that there existed a link between vitamin K deficiency and the worst affected coronavirus patients. 

Helpful reading

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