Q&A On COVID Herd Immunity: Is It Coming Soon? – Please click on link to subscibe –
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If a vaccine for coronavirus were to be developed, people could be protected from an infectious disease en masse, thanks to herd immunity. Herd immunity results when a huge population develops immunity against a virus. Polio was virtually eradicated this way. Of course, the ideal way to develop herd immunity is through vaccination. But, since a COVID-19 vaccine has not yet been discovered, researchers have chosen to first study antibodies. Recently, epidemiologists at Yale School of Public Health and Harvard University studied the proposed benefit of herd immunity by analyzing a specific immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection – the release of antibodies that fight the body’s foreign invaders. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19. This measure generally can indicate how many people have had the infection and recovered. Their research projects that to date only 10% of the U.S. population has shown antibodies in their blood. Therefore, the U.S. is still a far cry away from the 60% threshold required to achieve herd immunity, scientifically speaking. In an email interview with Medical Daily, Stuart C. Ray, MD, tells us why he believes producing natural antibodies is not the only route to herd immunity. Dr. Ray is vice chair of Medicine for Data Integrity and Analytics, and a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases within the Department of Medicine. Additionally, he holds secondary appointments in Viral Oncology and Health Sciences Informatics at Johns Hopkins. Excerpts: PLAY Top Articles Pain Redefined to Be More Inclusive About Connatix Read More Read More Read More Read More Read More Read More Q. Can you explain to our readers what exactly herd immunity means? Why do you think this is not an immediate solution to stopping the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States? A . Herd immunity is reached when the infection is resolving faster than it’s spreading, due to a high proportion of immune people. A person with SARS-CoV-2 infection tends to spread it to 2-3 other people, so we estimate that about 60% of people would need to be immune to reach the herd immunity threshold. We are far from reaching that 60% threshold via immunity after natural infection, both because not that many people have been infected and also because natural infection does not seem to provide long-lasting immunity. Q. Is vaccination the only way to achieve this? A. Based on experience with other coronaviruses, it seems likely that natural infection with SARS-CoV-2 will generate immunity for a period of months. If immunity does wane over a period of months, and with growing evidence that reinfections can occur with SARS-CoV-2, it seems unlikely that we will reach herd immunity through natural infection – we’ll always be playing catch-up. In addition, every natural infection with SARS-CoV-2 carries a risk of death and long-term symptoms, some of which we’re only just beginning to appreciate. In contrast to natural infection, vaccines that have been properly evaluated for efficacy and safety can generate can generate stronger immunity than natural infection because vaccines are engineered and proven to generate a protective response, whereas viruses have evolved to diminish the protective immune response during natural infection. The main difference is that vaccines are designed to leave out the part of the virus that hinders the protective response. Q. In your opinion, what are the various steps that a country needs to take to realistically establish herd immunity? What would the appropriate time period be, since a surge in the number of cases was reported within a month when Sweden tried it? A. We don’t know of a safe path to herd immunity, except through vaccination. Sweden recently announced that their death rate in the first half of 2020 is their highest in 150 years of record-keeping, and it appears that they still haven’t reached herd immunity. Q. You disagree with testing antibodies, which indicate how the virus could be transmitted in the future, though this measure could help determine herd immuni…
