Video number 46 of the channel, today taking a wide ranging look at the UK variant of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 (B.1.1.7). This video will go out of date very quickly as people find time to study this variant (right now we don’t know enough). Therefore, I wanted to talk about the variant in a much broader context than just this mutated virus. I discuss mutation of viruses and how natural selection can act on that, be it negatively, positively or neutrally. I discuss founder effects and the power of super spreader events as a way to look at these stories critically, these two combined and result in a variant becoming prominent within a population, even without it being more transmissible. With that said, the UK variant does seem to be more transmissible and has boomed in London very rapidly. However, that is still based only on genetic and epidemiological data, we do not have any experimental lab data to show that the virus better infects cells. We are also lacking any experiments to show if this variant can escape immunity, be that naturally from a previous infection or vaccine derived immunity. It isn’t thought this variant will escape immunity, but right now we still need to confirm that. There are many open questions about this variant. The fact we have found this variant though is very good! It was found because the UK is doing a huge amount of sequencing and can therefore find these mutants. We need to constantly be on the look out for these mutants and be prepared to respond quickly. Viruses are always mutating and it’s highly possible this virus will mutate to escape natural and vaccine based immunity and we need to know if that happens as quickly as possible. The fact we have found this, is therefore a good thing.
Timestamps
0:02:07 – End of the introduction and into discussing mutation of viruses and natural selection
0:05:56 – Founder effects and super-spreader events and how these can cause a genetic variant to become prominent without necessarily being more transmissible
0:09:59 – What might drive positive selection of virus mutant variants
0:13:30 – Onto the UK variant and a discussion of the mutations
0:20:38 – Vaccines and this variant
0:22:56 – More transmissible variants only emerge because of continued infection, keep doing everything to stop spread. The variant will still be blocked by masks, distancing etc
0:23:49 – Why was this found in the UK?
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And importantly through all this, stay safe, wash you hands, wear a mask, keep calm and carry on.
