A new American Society for Microbiology study revealed that it could be possible to use elements in the air to predict surges in flu and COVID-19 infections. Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, joins “The Daily Report” to discuss.
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COULD FALL IN THE STATE’S MOUNTAINOUS AREAS? A NEW STATE REVEALS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE TO USE ELEMENTS IN THE AIR TO PREDICT SURGES IN FLU AND COVID 19 INFECTIONS, ACCORDING TO FINDINGS FROM THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR MICROBIOLOGY. RESEARCHERS FOUND THAT WHEN THERE IS AN INCREASE IN AIRBORNE FUNGAL SPORES, THERE’S ALSO AN INCREASE IN CASES OF RESPIRATORY VIRUSES. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PROVIDE AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM TO PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEMS, DOCTOR AMESH ADALJA JOINS US NOW. HE’S A SENIOR SCHOLAR AT THE JOHNS HOPKINS CENTER FOR HEALTH SECURITY. AND, DOCTOR, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR BEING WITH US. WHAT IS THE SCIENCE BEHIND THAT AND HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE THESE FINDINGS? >> WELL, THIS IS A VERY FASCINATING STUDY, AND I THINK A LOT MORE NEEDS TO BE EXPLAINED TO REALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT THE RELATIONSHIP IS BETWEEN FUNGAL SPORE COUNTS AND COVID 19 OR INFLUENZA SURGES. BUT WE’VE ALWAYS KNOWN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT INFLUENCES WHEN PEOPLE GET INFECTED. WE SEE RESPIRATORY VIRUSES OFTEN FALLING FOLLOWING A CYCLICAL PATTERN, AND WE’RE LOOKING ALWAYS FOR BETTER INDICATORS TO BE ABLE TO PREDICT THAT WE USE WASTEWATER. WE WE KIND OF HAVE OUR PAST EXPERIENCE. AND NOW FUNGAL SPORES MIGHT BE SOMETHING THAT PICKS UP, YOU KNOW, A KIND OF A SIGNAL THAT WE DON’T QUITE UNDERSTAND OF WHAT’S GOING ON IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT MAKES THINGS THAT SPREAD THROUGH THE AIR MORE EFFICIENTLY, SPREADING THROUGH THE AIR. I THINK WHAT WE WANT TO KNOW IS WHAT THE MECHANISM IS HERE, BECAUSE THAT, TO ME IS THE PUZZLING PART OF IT. BUT THERE CLEARLY IS A SIGNAL HERE. AND WE ALWAYS WANT TO REFINE OUR ABILITY TO FORECAST WHEN RESPIRATORY VIRUS SEASON IS GOING TO BE BAD. >> AND DOCTOR AHMED AL-SHARAA, ANOTHER MEDICAL STUDY PUBLISHED BY THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR MICROBIOLOGY, IT’S SUGGESTING THAT THE BIRD FLU VIRUS IS EVOLVING AND FINDING NEW WAYS TO AVOID HUMAN IMMUNE DEFENSES. WHAT MORE CAN YOU TELL US ABOUT THAT? HOW ALARMING IS THAT TO YOU? >> SO THIS IS ALSO ANOTHER REALLY GREAT STUDY THAT WAS PRESENTED AT THAT SAME CONFERENCE. AND WHAT THIS DOES IS LOOKS AT ALL THE H5N1 CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER SEVERAL DECADES AND LOOKS AT THE GENETICS OF THE PROTEINS OF THIS VIRUS AND SEES AND TRIES TO SEE ARE THEY EVOLVING AND ARE THEY EVOLVING IN A WAY THAT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE MORE PROBLEMS FOR HUMANS? AND WHAT THEY’RE SEEING IS, YES, THIS VIRUS, LIKE ALL OTHER VIRUSES, IS EVOLVING. BUT I THINK THE BIG THING TO REMEMBER IS, IS THAT THIS VIRUS, H5N1, THE MAJOR AVIAN INFLUENZA OUTBREAK THAT DEALING WITH IN THE UNITED STATES HAS NOT REALLY SHOWN THE ABILITY TO INFECT HUMANS EFFICIENTLY. YES. IT’S EVOLVING. YES, IT’S ADAPTING TO MAMMALS. BUT WE STILL IT STILL HASN’T MADE THAT MAJOR JUMP THAT IT NEEDS TO TO BE ABLE TO CAUSE A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IN HUMANS. AND I THINK WE HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING IT. AND THESE A.I. TOOLS THAT ARE USED ARE REALLY ELEGANT WAYS TO DO IT. BUT AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE TO BE PROACTIVE ABOUT. BUT I DON’T THINK IT CHANGES THE THE RISK CALCULATION RIGHT NOW. >> THIS IS ALL HAPPENING THOUGH, AS THE HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES DEPARTMENT CANCELED FUNDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BIRD FLU VACCINE, HOW DOES THAT HOW DOES THAT SIT WITH YOU? >> IT’S A IT WAS A HORRIBLE DECISION. WHAT WE WANT IS A PROACTIVE APPROACH TO AVIAN INFLUENZA. WE WANT TO BE AHEAD OF THE CURVE. WE KNOW THAT AN AVIAN INFLUENZA PANDEMIC IS INEVITABLE. 1918 WAS AN AVIAN INFLUENZA PANDEMIC, AND NOW WE’VE GOT ALL THESE GREAT TOOLS, INCLUDING MRNA VACCINES, BUT WE NEED TO ACTUALLY DEPLOY THEM. WE NEED TO USE THAT KIND OF PHILOSOPHY OF OPERATION WARP SPEED TO GET READY AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AND TO SPEED VACCINE DEVELOPMENT. AND THIS DECISION BY HHS TO CANCEL THE MODERNA CONTRACT IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF IT. IT ACTUALLY MAKES US LESS SAFE. >> DOCTOR AMESH ADALJA, THANK
