In early February 2026, the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware denied Moderna’s bid for summary judgment in a multi-billion-dollar patent infringement case brought by Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences over lipid nanoparticle technology used in its COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax.
The ruling, which rejected Moderna’s attempt to claim government immunity, keeps the company exposed to a jury trial that could influence how biotech firms rely on third-party technology in future vaccine development.
We will now examine how this legal setback, particularly the denial of government immunity, shapes Moderna’s broader investment narrative and risk profile.
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To own Moderna today, you have to believe its mRNA platform can move beyond pandemic-era COVID revenues and eventually support a broader portfolio of commercial vaccines and therapies, even while the company remains loss-making. Near term, investors have been watching for uptake of updated COVID and RSV shots and progress in late-stage programs, but the recent Delaware court decision keeps a multi billion dollar patent claim over Spikevax squarely on the table. That denial of government immunity raises the stakes around potential damages and could reshape how investors think about Moderna’s reliance on third party lipid nanoparticle technology, adding a new layer of uncertainty to already volatile shares. At the same time, the appointment of David Berman as Chief Development Officer underlines management’s push to execute on the oncology and immunotherapy pipeline that underpins the longer term story.
However, one legal risk in particular could materially affect how shareholders view Moderna’s mRNA economics. Moderna’s share price has been on the slide but might be up to 8% below fair value. Find out if it’s a bargain.
MRNA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Twenty one members of the Simply Wall St Community value Moderna anywhere from about US$38.02 per share to a very large upper estimate of US$175, underscoring how far apart individual expectations sit. When you set those views against the unresolved multi billion dollar patent case and the company’s ongoing losses, it becomes clear that you are weighing very different risk and reward assumptions that deserve closer scrutiny.
Explore 21 other fair value estimates on Moderna – why the stock might be worth 7% less than the current price!
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A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate Moderna’s overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MRNA.
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