An increased allotment of rent supplements will expand Ontario’s universe of subsidized housing options over the next two years, while, simultaneously, more households are projected to fall into need. A newly released report from the provincial Financial Accountability Office (FAO) estimates roughly 894,000 Ontario households will lack suitably affordable accommodations by 2027-28, but about 8,400 additional seekers will be able to secure dwellings for less than 30 per cent of their pre-tax annual earnings.
A large chunk of the latter gains are expected to come from rent supplements funded via the Canada-Ontario Housing Benefit (COHB), a cost-shared program under the national housing strategy (NHS). Subsidies coming on stream since the federal government launched the NHS in 2019 (and the Ontario government subsequently agreed to share costs of three of its various programs) comprise the major share of current rent supplements, while the supply tied to earlier programs has been shrinking.
Rent supplements take two forms:
either paid to landlords and tied to specific units within private rental buildings that are contracted for tenants paying rent-geared-to-income (RGI); or
conveyed directly to tenants as a portable subsidy they can use to bridge the gap between their earnings and market rents.
Drawing on data supplied by Ontario’s Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, the FAO reports a 49 per cent increase in the number of rent supplements on offer — climbing from 23,330 to 45,400 — during the six-year period ending in 2024-25. As of last year, that represented 14.4 per cent of dwellings tied to a provincial subsidized housing program, and COHB-related supplements accounted for 31,655 of those units.
However, that was still less than 75 per cent of the ultimate target to support 43,600 households through the program by 2028. The FAO report projects Ontario will contribute $139 million toward NHS programs in 2027-28 “largely due to the Province’s requirement to cost-match federal COHB funding”.
The augmented supply of rent supplements occurs in the context of steadily growing demand. The FAO estimates that nearly 17 per cent of Ontario households faced onerous housing costs last year, but only about 5 per cent received provincial support.
More than 1 million households could not obtain market housing for less than 30 per cent of their pre-tax incomes or were living in dilapidated conditions and/or insufficient space for their household size. Of these, roughly 316,000 households received assistance through a provincial subsidized housing program, but about 86,000 still paid more than 30 per cent of their pre-tax income on housing.
Of the roughly 729,000 stressed households that did not receive provincial assistance, about 398,000 did not qualify for support based on their income level, asset holdings or immigration status (non-permanent residents such as international students and foreign temporary workers typically do not qualify). The remainder were excluded due to the inadequate capacity of subsidized housing programs.
Looking to 2027-28, the FAO projects that 76,440 households that receive provincial assistance will still pay more than 30 per cent of their income on housing; 381,200 households that theoretically qualify for support will not receive it due to “limited program capacity”; and 436,350 households will pay more than 30 per cent of their incomes for housing or live in dilapidated and/or crowded conditions but fall outside the parameters to qualify for provincial assistance.
The report also charts how the senior levels of government withdrew from subsidized housing provision over an extended period earlier in the 21st century, but have more recently re-engaged. Municipalities’ share of subsidized housing expenditure in Ontario increased from 57 per cent to 69 per cent in the years between 2004-05 and 2021-22. During the same period, the federal quotient fell from 32.3 per cent to 25 per cent, while the Ontario government’s contribution dwindled from 10.6 per cent to 6 per cent.
New spending with the NHS has reversed that trajectory. By 2027-28, the FAO projects the federal share will rise to 31.4 per cent and Ontario’s quotient will nudge up to 9.9 per cent, while municipalities cover the remaining 58.7 per cent. Even so, on an inflation-adjusted real spending basis, federal spending will have decreased by an annual average rate of slightly less than 0.1 per cent and provincial spending will have dropped by an annual average rate of 0.2 per cent over the period since 2004.
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