If you are wondering whether e.l.f. Beauty is attractively priced or just riding a wave of enthusiasm, the current share price of US$72.50 makes that a timely question. The stock has recently seen a 1.2% decline over the last week, a 22.9% decline over the past month, yet is still up 15.4% over the last year and 167.4% over five years, which can change how risk and return feel for new and existing shareholders. Recent coverage has focused on e.l.f. Beauty as a prominent name in the US beauty and personal care market, often highlighting its brand positioning and presence across major retail channels. This context helps frame why the share price has moved around, as investors react to how durable they think that positioning might be. Simply Wall St currently assigns e.l.f. Beauty a valuation score of 2 out of 6. The rest of this article will walk through what that means using standard valuation checks before finishing with a broader way to think about what the stock could be worth.
e.l.f. Beauty scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: e.l.f. Beauty Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. It is essentially asking what all future cash that might be available to shareholders is worth in present terms.
For e.l.f. Beauty, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flows in US$. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $226.6 million. Analyst inputs run out after several years, so the estimates from 2026 through 2035 are partly based on analyst forecasts and then extended using Simply Wall St’s own extrapolation, with projected free cash flow in 2035 of about $178.6 million, or $87.3 million on a discounted basis.
Adding up all discounted cash flows produces an estimated intrinsic value of US$53.10 per share. Against the current share price of US$72.50, that implies the stock is about 36.5% above this DCF estimate, which points to a full valuation on this model.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests e.l.f. Beauty may be overvalued by 36.5%. Discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
ELF Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026
Approach 2: e.l.f. Beauty Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to link what you pay for a share to the earnings that support it. It helps you see how many dollars investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what investors expect for future growth and how much risk they see in those earnings. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower multiple.
e.l.f. Beauty currently trades on a P/E of about 41.19x. That sits well above the Personal Products industry average of 20.58x and the peer average of 10.42x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” for e.l.f. Beauty is 41.72x, which is the P/E it suggests based on factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison because it is built around the company’s own profile rather than broad group averages. Since the Fair Ratio of 41.72x is very close to the current P/E of 41.19x, the shares screen as ABOUT RIGHT on this metric.
Result: ABOUT RIGHT
NYSE:ELF P/E Ratio as at Mar 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your e.l.f. Beauty Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so meet Narratives, which let you attach a clear story about e.l.f. Beauty to your numbers by linking your view on its brand, tariffs, acquisitions and global expansion to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value that can be compared directly to the current share price.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an accessible tool used by millions of investors, where each Narrative connects a storyline to a full model and keeps it updated automatically when new information such as quarterly results, guidance changes, analyst targets or news about initiatives like the Roblox Glow Up! experience or the Rhode acquisition is added.
For e.l.f. Beauty today, one investor Narrative might conclude a Fair Value of about US$85 per share using cautious assumptions around tariff risks and margins. Another might point to a Fair Value closer to US$152.71 based on stronger growth. Comparing any of these Fair Values to the live market price can help you decide whether the stock currently looks expensive, cheap or roughly in line with your own expectations.
Do you think there’s more to the story for e.l.f. Beauty? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NYSE:ELF 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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