HERD IMMUNITY Analysis Covid19 based on the following assumtions:
1. Each Country will reach HERD IMMUNITY when the percentage deaths of the population is at the same level as for San Marino (And Lombardy).
2. The deaths per million population continues to grow with the current growth pace.
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About the Analysis
In order to achieve HERD IMMUNITY some scientists believe that HERD IMMUNITY can go into effect when 40 percent of the people in a population become immune to the disease, such as through vaccination. But in most cases, 80 to 95 percent of the population must be immune to the disease to stop its spread.
In this Analysis we have chosen to use “Deaths of 1M Population” as a metric in order to do our simulations.
Based on the current growth pace for this metric we have done projections into the future
As a target we have chosen “Deaths of 1M population” in San Marino where this share currently is highest in the World. That means when a country reaches San Marinos level, we assume that Herd Immunity has been reached
There many factors that can have impact on the rate “Deaths of 1M population” in each country when Herd Immunity has been reached.
Sources of error which could lead to different
The share of discovered Covid19 cases is different in the countries
Deaths due to Corona has been measured differently in many Countries
The Age Structure of the population (E.g. Higher age higher Death% of the population)
Health Care Resources differs between the countries
Health Care Efficiency differs between countries
