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Wondering whether e.l.f. Beauty is attractively priced or just riding hype? This article looks at what the current share price might imply about the company’s underlying value.
The stock last closed at US$60.49, with returns of an 8.7% decline over 7 days, a 1.1% decline over 30 days, a 22.3% decline year to date and an 11.1% decline over the past year, compared to a 100.8% gain over five years.
Recent coverage has focused on e.l.f. Beauty’s position in the beauty and personal care market, and how its brand and distribution footprint are evolving. This context helps frame why the share price has been under pressure in the short term even after a strong multi year run.
Right now, e.l.f. Beauty scores 0 out of 6 on Simply Wall St’s valuation checks (which you can see in detail on the valuation scorecard). The next sections will look at how different valuation methods assess the stock and then introduce a broader way of thinking about value that goes beyond a single model.
e.l.f. Beauty scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: e.l.f. Beauty Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present. It focuses on the cash that could ultimately be available to shareholders.
For e.l.f. Beauty, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at about $226.6 million. Analysts provide specific free cash flow estimates out to 2028, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further to 2035 using its own assumptions. Within this, projected free cash flow in 2028 is $85 million, with later years based on estimated changes rather than direct analyst forecasts.
Bringing all of these projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $12.99 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$60.49, the DCF output implies the stock is very expensive, with the model indicating it is 365.6% overvalued.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests e.l.f. Beauty may be overvalued by 365.6%. Discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
ELF Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026
Story Continues
Approach 2: e.l.f. Beauty Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful gauge because it links what you pay per share to the earnings that the business is currently generating. It gives a quick sense of how many years of current earnings the market is effectively pricing in.
What counts as a normal P/E depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings appear. Higher growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually points to a lower multiple.
e.l.f. Beauty trades on a P/E of 34.37x. That is above the Personal Products industry average of 19.80x and also above the peer group average of 10.85x, so the stock is priced at a premium on this simple comparison.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for e.l.f. Beauty is 21.27x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. Because it blends these company level features rather than just averaging peers, it can offer a more tailored anchor than broad industry or peer multiples alone.
Comparing the Fair Ratio of 21.27x with the actual P/E of 34.37x suggests the shares are trading well above that implied level.
Result: OVERVALUED
NYSE:ELF P/E Ratio as at May 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your e.l.f. Beauty Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so this is where Narratives come in as a simple way to connect your view of e.l.f. Beauty with the numbers you see on screen.
A Narrative is essentially your story for a company, where you spell out what you think fair value is along with your assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, instead of relying only on a single model output.
On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and turn that story into a full forecast and fair value estimate. This means you can compare your Fair Value to the current share price and quickly see whether e.l.f. Beauty looks expensive or cheap against your own expectations.
Because these Narratives refresh when new information such as news, guidance or earnings arrives, you are not locked into a stale view and can see how updated assumptions change the implied value over time.
For e.l.f. Beauty, one investor Narrative pegs fair value at about US$85 per share while another sits closer to US$252. This shows how different views on growth, margins and risk can lead to very different conclusions about what the stock is worth.
Do you think there’s more to the story for e.l.f. Beauty? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NYSE:ELF 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ELF.
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