CEBU CITY, Philippines — The supply of anti-rabies vaccine here has fallen so critically low that city veterinarians can no longer achieve herd immunity in the dog population this year without immediate emergency intervention.
The Department of Veterinary Medicine and Fisheries (DVMF) currently holds only 1,400 anti-rabies vaccine vials, a fraction of the estimated 11,000 to 12,000 vials needed to vaccinate at least 70 percent of the city’s dog population based on official baseline data.
Worse, DVMF chief Dr. Jessica Maribojoc warned that Cebu City may realistically require as many as 20,000 vials today if authorities use updated international estimates tied to the city’s growing human population.
READ: Dog rabies cases in Cebu City ‘alarming’; City Vet calls out irresponsible pet owners
The shortage now threatens the city’s ability to contain rabies transmission among owned, community, and stray dogs at a time when Cebu City recorded 31 rabies cases last year.
“Mahulog siya nga dili gyud enough ang bakuna nato sa karon nga maka-cover aron mo-reach ta sa 70 percent,” Maribojoc said in Cebuano during an interview. (This means our current vaccine supply is truly not enough to reach 70 percent coverage.)
READ: Mandaue City rabies: Only one case reported so far for 2025
The issue surfaced during discussions at the Cebu City Council on May 19, over a proposed ordinance seeking to institutionalize responsible pet ownership, humane community pet care, and stray animal management.
Behind the policy debate, internal data reveals a far more critical crisis. Cebu City’s anti-rabies vaccine inventory has plummeted so far below the scientific threshold for herd immunity that stopping the virus this year is now a mathematical impossibility.
“Na-shortage siya tungod kay ang niabot ra gyud sa akoa kay 1,400 vaccine vials,” Maribojoc said. (We suffered a shortage because only 1,400 vaccine vials arrived.)
She explained that the city originally allocated around 11,000 vials last year, but by January, only 900 usable vials remained because 500 had already been consumed after the late delivery arrived near the end of 2025.
“Layo pa kaayo ang 1,400 vials,” she said. (The 1,400 vials fall far short.)
Maribojoc stressed that the shortage did not stem solely from the stray dog problem but from increasing rabies risks and insufficient vaccination coverage overall.
“So, ang Cebu City nagka-shortage taliwala sa nagkataas nga rabies concerns. Wala nag-shortage tungod sa stray dogs, kundi naa tay vaccination shortage because nagkataas ang rabies cases last year,” she said. (Cebu City now faces a shortage amid rising rabies concerns. The shortage did not happen because of stray dogs alone, but because we have a vaccination shortage while rabies cases increased last year.)
Herd immunity out of reach
Under global rabies control standards, cities need to vaccinate at least 70 percent of the dog population annually to establish herd immunity strong enough to interrupt rabies transmission.
Maribojoc said Cebu City cannot reach that threshold under its current vaccine inventory.
“Kung sa 166,000 nga dog population nato ibase, ang 70 percent niana kay 116,200 ka mga iro,” she said. (If we base it on our 166,000 dog population, then 70 percent means vaccinating 116,200 dogs.)
“Nanginahanglan na siya og more or less 11,000 to 12,000 vials,” she added. (That requires around 11,000 to 12,000 vials.)
Each vial can vaccinate about 10 dogs.
The 166,000 figure traces back to Cebu City’s 2016 dog population survey conducted by the DVMF in partnership with international animal welfare groups, including Humane Society International (HSI).
The city used tracking applications and household-level surveys to establish what officials considered the first scientifically grounded estimate of Cebu City’s dog population, which reached 166,880 dogs.
But Maribojoc said even that figure may now severely underestimate the city’s actual dog population.
She cited guidelines from the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), which allow local governments without updated surveys to estimate dog populations at roughly 25 percent of the human population, equivalent to a 4:1 human-to-dog ratio commonly used in developing urban areas.
Previously, Cebu City used a far lower 10 percent estimate under older Department of Health formulas.
“Actually, kung wala gyud tay bag-o nga population data, base sa WOA guidelines, pwede nato i-estimate ang dog population sa 25 percent sa human population,” Maribojoc said. (Actually, if we still do not have updated population data, WOAH guidelines allow us to estimate the dog population at 25 percent of the human population.)
She noted that Cebu City’s human population has significantly grown since 2016 based on Philippine Statistics Authority data, meaning the current dog population may now far exceed the old baseline.
“Kung atong i-compute ang 25 percent sa human population karon, mas dako pa gyud ang iro,” she said. (If we compute 25 percent of the current human population, the dog population becomes even larger.)
“We might even need up to 20,000 vials as of now,” she added.
Budget cuts worsen shortage
Maribojoc also linked the vaccine shortage to shrinking city budgets.
“Supposedly, kung ingana ang sitwasyon, dili gyud angay i-cut off amoang budget,” she said. (Given this situation, our budget should not have been cut.)
She revealed that the DVMF’s budget for medicines and biologics this year dropped to only P3.5 million.
“Actually, dili ra among department ang gi-cut ang budget,” she said. (Actually, our department was not the only one that suffered budget cuts.)
The veterinarian explained that while the city approved a supplemental budget for additional vaccines, procurement delays continue to block purchases because the office still lacks a purchase order.
“Naa siyay supplemental budget, but dili pa ko kapadayon o ka-proceed kung wala pakoy PO karong tuiga,” she said. (There is a supplemental budget, but I still cannot proceed because I do not yet have a purchase order this year.)
Prioritizing rabies-positive barangays
Facing limited vaccine stocks, the DVMF now plans to prioritize barangays that recently recorded rabies-positive cases.
“Naa tay strategy sa pagbakuna matag barangay,” Maribojoc said. (We have a strategy to focus vaccination in every barangay.)
“Unahon gyud nato ang mga barangay nga nag-positive karon nga tuig ug sa miaging tuig,” she added. (We will prioritize barangays that recorded positive rabies cases this year and last year.)
The city also plans to implement a “gawas-pasulod” strategy, vaccinating from outer areas inward, to contain possible transmission corridors.
The rabies issue surfaced as the City Council discussed Councilor Paul Labra II’s proposed ordinance on responsible pet ownership and humane stray animal management.
The measure seeks to strengthen vaccination compliance, registration, microchipping, and community participation in animal welfare programs amid growing concerns over stray animals and animal bite incidents.
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