What the latest guidance and earnings mean for e.l.f. Beauty stock
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) raised its fiscal 2027 net sales guidance to a range of US$1.94b to US$1.97b, alongside first quarter 2026 results that showed higher sales, net income and earnings per share year over year.
The updated outlook now implies an 18% to 20% year over year net sales change for 2027, compared with a previously guided 12% to 14% range. This gives investors a clearer view of management’s current expectations for the business over the next fiscal year.
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, e.l.f. Beauty reported sales of US$479.37m compared with US$353.74m a year earlier. Net income was US$66.6m versus US$33.31m, with basic earnings per share from continuing operations at US$1.13 compared with US$0.59 and diluted earnings per share at US$1.12 compared with US$0.58.
These guidance and earnings updates arrive with the stock at US$98.49 as of August 5, 2026 and a market value of about US$5.8b. That context helps you weigh how the current valuation lines up with the new financial outlook.
See our latest analysis for e.l.f. Beauty.
The raised 2027 guidance and stronger first quarter figures have arrived alongside a sharp shift in sentiment, with e.l.f. Beauty’s 90 day share price return of 76.95% and 1 month share price return of 28.33% pointing to strong recent momentum, even though the 1 year total shareholder return is down 11.8% and the 3 year total shareholder return is down 26.59%, while the 5 year total shareholder return remains up 236.03%.
If you are looking beyond e.l.f. Beauty and want to see what else is moving, this could be a good time to review 19 top founder-led companies
After e.l.f. Beauty’s sharp rebound and the stock now sitting close to some analyst targets yet at a discount to certain intrinsic estimates, the real tension is clear. Where does fair value actually sit in that spread?
Most Popular Narrative: 25% Overvalued
The most followed narrative for e.l.f. Beauty pegs fair value at $78.81, which sits well below the recent $98.49 close and frames the current debate.
The company is highly effective at leveraging influencer marketing, social media virality, and community-driven innovation (e.g., TikTok Shop exclusives, rapid launch cadence), enabling lower customer acquisition costs and highly efficient brand-building, supporting both top-line growth and sustainable net margin expansion.
Want to see what kind of revenue curve and margin lift that brand engine is assumed to deliver? The fair value hinges on a multi year earnings ramp and a richer profit profile that only a handful of beauty stocks are priced for.
Result: Fair Value of $78.81 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, e.l.f. Beauty still faces real pressure if Chinese tariff exposure squeezes margins or if heavier marketing after the Rhode deal fails to translate into steadier earnings.
Find out about the key risks to this e.l.f. Beauty narrative.
Another view on e.l.f. Beauty valuation
Analysts using a discounted cash flow approach reach a different conclusion on e.l.f. Beauty. The SWS DCF model points to a fair value of about $133.83 per share, with the current $98.49 price sitting roughly 26% below that estimate. How much weight do you put on a model like this versus the analyst target?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
ELF Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out e.l.f. Beauty for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 52 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With e.l.f. Beauty pulled between upbeat guidance, recent share price swings and mixed long term returns, it helps to look under the hood yourself and decide what matters most right now. To weigh both the concerns and the potential upside in one place, start with these 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond e.l.f. Beauty?
If e.l.f. Beauty has sharpened your focus on quality and price, you can use that same mindset to scan other opportunities that could fit your goals before they move away.
Target potential value opportunities by reviewing the 52 high quality undervalued stocks that combine solid fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their financial profile. Strengthen your income shortlist by checking the 8 dividend fortresses that focus on higher yields supported by underlying business stability. Protect your downside first by assessing the 83 resilient stocks with low risk scores that emphasise resilient balance sheets and milder volatility profiles.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place
We’ve created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it’s free.
• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com