Social distancing impedes covid-19 Immunity
Israel ministry of health failing to stop second wave of
coronavirus. There are two strategies for handling viral epidemic:
Full protection against virus , disregarding immunity.
Full immunity , and ignoring virus
The Israel ministry of Health formulated the following working hypothesis:
COVID-19 is a disease caused by the new coronavirus that emerged in China in December
2019The new coronavirus spreads from person to person. It is diagnosed with a laboratory
testThere is no coronavirus vaccine yet. Our ministry of Health adopted the following model.
It consists of three groups of individuals exposed to corona virus .
SIR model: Compartment residents, called cases, are pushed passively between compartments
by an infectious virus. Goal: full protection from viral infection.
Virus triggers infection and immunity against virus The model requires constant parameters. Yet
transition parameters change with time.
Dual role of virus :Virus triggers infection Virus triggers immunity against virus
Social distancing terminates epidemic but leaves many patients susceptible
Two goals:
Full protection against virus , disregarding immunity.
Full immunity , and ignoring virus
Watch and wait involves closely monitoring a patient’s condition without giving any treatment
until symptoms appear or change.
Watch and wait : Patients with self-healing condition
Watch and don’t wait: Patients with comorbidity
